Interesting Poll and a Prediction

An interesting poll of Virginians recently came out in the Post. It's interesting for a variety of reasons. If you're following Virginia politics and thinking about the upcoming 2007 state legislative elections or the 2008 U.S. Senate race for the open seat vacated by John Warner, well, it provides a little insight there. More interesting than that, though, are the findings regarding the presidential race.

Virginia has been a very "red" state since 1968 (last voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 1964). In recent years, however, there has been a slight shift, albeit at the gubernatorial level, as Democrats have held onto the governor's mansion since 2001. In this most recent poll, 52% of people wanted the next president to be a Democrat (compared to 41% for a Republican). As most people should point out, the "generic" Democrat vs. Republican is not a good indicator of how people will actually vote. In fact, one of the main arguments put forth by Karl Rove and others is that, if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she will not win the general election simply because her negatives are too high. So, the argument goes that Hillary Clinton couldn't possibly win a state like Virginia, regardless of the "generic" contest. Rudy Giuliani has recently made the argument that he is the only Republican candidate who can beat Clinton (clearly, his argument rests on different premises from Rove's as it assumes an all-powerful Clinton).

HOWEVER, further down in the poll, they ask people who they would DEFINITELY NOT VOTE for in the general election. Giuliani actually manages to score 1 point higher (i.e. worse) than Clinton. 45% of polled Virginians would not vote for Giuliani vs. 44% of Virginians who would not vote for Clinton (obviously, this within the margin of error). This should not be comforting news to those Republicans who have been counting on Clinton's negatives to carry the day for them. In fact, the top three candidates in terms of voters that would NOT vote for them are, in order: Romney (53%), Thompson (48%), and Giuliani. Coincidentally, these are also the top three Republicans (according to national polls) vying for the Republican nomination. With such high "negatives" in a state like Virginia, it makes you wonder how any of these guys could possibly win the general election.

Nonetheless, here's my prediction for something occurring in 13 months: The election will be very close, decided by less than 3 points. You may wonder how I could say this after making a case for a blowout, but I do not underestimate the power of each side to throw the usual labels at the other, causing voters to pigeonhole them and then split, in their usual fashion, right down the middle. Clinton will be painted as a liberal, though as any liberal will tell you, she's far from a liberal, and thus her numbers will be dragged down. A couple of grandmas in Ohio could make the difference in the election simply because they like Clinton's hair or have a thing for bald liars like Giuliani.